Validating Models of Adversary Behaviors

Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent on the United States homeland security since 9/11, and numerous models have been developed to study the strategic interactions between defenders and adversaries, e.g. attackers or terrorists.

Unfortunately, few if any models have yet been validated using empirical data, limiting the application of those models in practice.

Supported by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) and the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), Drs. Jun Zhuang and Vicki Bier are organizing a conference on validating models of adversary behavior in Buffalo/Niagara Falls, NY, in June 23-26, 2013.

This conference is intended to bridge theoretical and empirical research on adversarial modeling, and facilitate transitioning of the best existing models of adversary behavior into practice by assessing and demonstrating their validity and applicability to real-world problems.

A secondary goal of the conference is to encourage synergy and communication between risk analysts, statisticians, economists, and other social scientists engaged in terrorism modeling and research.

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