Update on IARPA judgmental forecasting program

IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program seeks to develop and test methods for generating accurate and timely probabilistic forecasts, leading indicators, and early warning for events, by aggregating the judgments of many widely-dispersed analysts. The Program will develop and test… methods for eliciting, aggregating, and representing forecasts for conditional and unconditional events, by using data about forecasters and their patterns of judgment that are predictive of accuracy. Materials from the ACE Proposers’ Day, including a list of attendees, are posted here (http://www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_ace.html). A Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) for the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program has been posted here (http://www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_ace.html).