Shortly before my summer holidays I digressed about the ECRI-WLI (a weekly leading index for the US) that the observed recent marked drop-down, as seen in the following graph
does not suggest evidence for a double-dip. In fact, the magnitude of the effect seems to be due, mainly, to particular artifacts – including an increasing volatility – which should be accounted for previous to `filtering', see my previous post on the topic. I'll shortly up-date my findings by relying on the latest data (download: 31.July 2010).
“Up-Dating the ECRI-WLI: Still no Evidence for a Double-Dip…” vollständig lesen