Trends – November 2008 Issue

A new issue of Trends is available, the e-newsletter from Business Forecast Systems. Trends puts more than two decades worth of forecasting knowledge, experience and expertise at your fingertips every other month. Watch it for tips & techniques, information & insight, observations & opinions and more.

Forecasting 101: Going Beyond Automatic Forecasting
Part 2: Improving Your Forecasting with Event Models

This installment of Forecasting 101 presents the second of three articles about going beyond automatic forecasting. The first article presented an overview of automatic time series approaches examining how they work, the pros and cons of using them, and situations where they should not be utilized. In this installment we explore event models-an advanced forecasting method which will often outperform automatic time series approaches for data where special events like promotions, strikes, moveable holidays, etc. have occurred during the historic demand period.

Read Part 2: Improving Your Forecasting with Event Models

Forecast Reporting & Analysis: Trends 30-Second Survey Results

In the September issue of Trends we conducted the sixth installment of the ongoing Trends 30-Second Survey series with a survey on forecast reporting and analysis. In this issue we present results that provide insights into the types of reports forecasters use, the tools and media used for reporting and where within the organization forecasts are reported. Downloadable slides, including a list of additional resources, are also provided.

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Change Management: Key to Effective S&OP Implementation

While Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) is one of the hottest "trends" in business practice today, research shows that few organizations are satisfied with the effectiveness of their S&OP implementations. At the Forecasting Summit in Orlando in February, Dr. Mark Moon will explain why insufficient attention to Change Management is to blame, and the five levers that must be addressed to ensure success.

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Forecast Pro Tips & Tricks:
Using Weighting Transformations in Forecast Pro

At the recent Forecasting Summit I had a discussion with an attendee about his forecasting process. He uses Forecast Pro, but rather than using "actual" monthly history he is creating a "corrected" monthly history in Excel to accommodate his 4-4-5 planning calendar. I explained to him that Forecast Pro's built-in weighting transformations could be used to accomplish this automatically.

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