Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery

This paper applies a business cycle dating algorithm to monthly North West county and local authority district claimant count data to assess turning points in the economic cycle of sub-regions. We date the transition of all districts of the North West into recession beginning in June 2007. By utilising manufacturing and service sector survey information in a logistic regression model we forecast the continuation of the recession for North West regionâs employment cycle in the first quarter of 2010. A longer term forecast with the Land Registryâs house price index predicts a transition to an expansion phase in the fourth quarter of 2010.