Special IJF on Group-based Judgmental Forecasting

In many situations, pure model-based statistical forecasting methods are impractical because of the absence of appropriate historical data, and so some form of judgmental assessment is necessary. However, individuals frequently differ in their judgments, and so some form of judgment combination, or disagreement resolution, is essential.

Should the process of combination be structured in some way – if so, how? Evidence shows that structured methods, such as Delphi, can outperform both standard interacting groups and statistical groups – where either equal or unequal weights are given to the constituent individual opinions. But what is it about, for example, the Delphi process that makes it work? This Special Issue of the International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) is focussed on understanding (i) judgment change and (ii) improvements in forecasting quality, within a group-based context. Potential topics include: 

  • Demonstrations of the efficacy of particular techniques
  • Elucidations of the mechanisms by which improvements in forecasting validity are obtained
  • Advances in the applications of techniques that combine, or resolve disagreements between, the judgments of individual forecasters
  • Theoretical evaluations of group-based forecasting

If you are interested in contributing to this special issue, please submit a one-page abstract to both editors of the special issue for an initial assessment. A quick response will be given regarding the suitability of the paper for the special issue. The deadline for submission of full papers is 1 June 2009 and we are aiming for the special issue to be published by summer 2010. All papers submitted will go through a double blind review process and only those papers that meet the requirements of the International Journal of Forecasting would be accepted for publication.

Please submit your initial abstract electronically to both editors listed below: 

George Wright
Durham Business School
Durham University
Mill Hill Lane
United Kingdom
E-mail: george.wright@durham.ac.uk 

Gene Rowe
Institute of Food Research
Norwich Research Park
United Kingdom
E-mail: gene.rowe@bbsrc.ac.uk