Simple scientific climate forecast continues to beat Al Gore’s alarming predictions

When uncertainty is high and the situation is complex and not well understood, it is hard to beat a simple no-change forecast. Applying that principle to problem of long term forecasting of global average temperatures, Scott Armstrong challenged former Vice President Al Gore to bet his dramatic forecasts of dangerous manmade global warming against a no-change benchmark in 2007. Mr Gore did not accept the bet, but what if he had? We now have two years of monthly data since the challenge was issued, and Mr Gore's prediction (assumed to be an increase of 0.03C per year) was less accurate than assuming the temperature would not change from the 2007 average for both years. Mr Gore's forecast was more accurate in only four of the 24 months. To read more, visit The Global Warming Challenge site (http://www.theclimatebet.com/).