Risk Intelligent Forecast Better

Projection Point Ltd defines Risk Intelligence (RQ) as the ability to estimate probabilities accurately. People with high risk intelligence tend to make better forecasts than those with low RQ, they say.

Twilight zone
“Risk intelligence really comes into its own when you are neither completely certain nor completely uncertain”, says Dylan Evans, CEO of Projection Point.

“In other words, when you give estimates from 10% to 40% or between 60% and 90%, assuming that we only allow ten percent increments in the estimates. This is the twilight zone between the stuff you really know and the stuff about which you don’t have a clue.”

Grey area
Evans thinks of the mind as a light bulb shining in a dark room. Those objects which are fully illuminated by the light from the bulb are the things you know for sure. The objects which are still shrouded in darkness are the things about which you know nothing. Between the light and the darkness, however, lies a grey area in which the level of illumination gradually shades away.

“In this event horizon the objects are not fully illuminated, but neither are they completely invisible. These are the things which you don’t know for sure, but which you have an inkling. Gauging exactly how much you know you about these things is the basis of risk intelligence.”

Test your risk intelligence
The online test consists of 50 statements which may be true or false. Your task is to say how likely you think it is that each statement is true. The test takes about five minutes to complete.

“This test is rather unusual in that you can score very highly even if you don’t know much”, says Evans. “That’s because this test measures self-knowledge rather than factual knowledge. It rewards you for gauging your own level of uncertainty accurately, rather than for knowing a bunch of facts.”

You can take the test for free by going to www.projectionpoint.com