Principles Of Forecasting: A Handbook For Researchers And Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance, marketing, personnel, and production.
The book was edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were authored by 40 leading experts in forecasting. The 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of "if-then principles", and they summarize evidence on these principles.
The project, conducted over a four-year period, has led to the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it in the form of principles that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another?s papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book also includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
The Principles of Forecasting book is now freely available in full text on Google Books. Most of it anyway – Google Books leaves out random pages. Go to Google Books and look for the author or title (or simply do a Google search on "forecasting," where the book is currently in the top three entries).
Nevertheless, the search procedure on the site is excellent. This makes it easy to track down research findings. You can, for example, find all discussions of a method (e.g., bootstrapping or extrapolation), a topic (e.g., automobiles or politics) — or all summaries of your own research.