Predicting elections using the big issue

Andreas Graefe ( and Scott Armstrong ( developed a model for forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections based on perceptions of how candidates would handle the big issue of the time. The model provides fast advice on which issues candida… tes should focus on in their campaign by using information about how voters perceive the candidates’ ability to handle the single most important issue facing the country. It predicted the winner of the past ten elections with an accuracy of 97%. Graefe and Armstrong's paper has been published in the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making ( For more about the paper, see the pages here (