PollyVote is forecasting the U.S. Presidential election

Once again Polly the parrot is trying to demonstrate the power of forecasting principles – in particular damping and combining — to forecast the U.S. Presidential election. Polly knows nothing about politics, but she is a good listener and she knows how to take averages.

Polly was almost perfect in the 2004 election, and has added new tricks this year, such as damping the polling averages and providing daily updating — along with a new site design. Pollyvote is part of the Political Forecasting Special Interest Group at forecastingprinciples.com, a resource for scholars and practitioners interested in forecasting elections and other political events. It is supported by the International Institute of Forecasters.

Having ventured out to bring more election data, Polly has brought to its caretakers the PollyElectoral Vote. This variable is a forecast of the number of Electoral Votes that the incumbents, represented by the McCain-Palin ticket, are expected to win on Election Day. As with all other variables that it reports, Polly averages the Electoral Vote projections produced with different methods.

Visit Polly at PollyVote.Com