NNGC1-Competition: my Submission of Data-Set F and Some General Forecasting Issues

These are my forecasts for Data-Set F of NNGC1 : 

Please have a look at my petition.html”>previous Blog-entry concerning the choice of Data-Set F. Note that I release my results slightly before the deadline of the competition: I don't trust its design and I wouldn't be surprised if the whole competition would get a `cancel'. Therefore, posting my results prematurely is nomore of immediate concern to me. You might be tempted to ask: "Why did you  participate"?

  • I provided prematurely results, see 2. Therefore I may propose forecasts too.
  • Sometimes, it's difficult to anticipate an experience that becomes an evidence afterwards. At least I didn't expect so many flaws in NNGC1 a priori.
  • Presently, my main motivation has been slightly downgraded and it's scope has been shifted. More precisely: 
    • I took the opportunity to discuss the design of more `meaningful' future forecasting competitions, see 1.
    • Here, I'd like to discuss forecasting issues that might be of interest for practitioners. For that purpose I'll rely on data-set F of NNGC1. 

Please allow me to show up a bit of ambition at this place: I'd like to reveal/confirm what forecasting is all about, namely the systematic and careful design of a best possible compromise.

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