New issue of Trends

Trends is the e-newsletter from Business Forecast Systems. Trends puts more than two decades worth of forecasting knowledge, experience and expertise at your fingertips every other month. Watch it for tips & techniques, information & insight, observations & opinions and more.

Forecasting 101: The Anatomy of a Forecast

When you use a statistical model to generate a 12-month forecast, you get more than just twelve numbers. You also get a great deal of information about how the forecast was generated, the model's fit to the historic data and different measures of expected forecast accuracy. In this article, we dissect and catalogue the different components of a statistical forecast.

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Improving Judgmental Adjustments

It is common practice for both forecasting practitioners and decision makers using forecasts to make judgmental adjustments to statistically-based forecasts. At the Forecasting Summit in Orlando in February, Professor Dilek Onkal of Bilkent University reviewed research which provides insight into when adjustments are most beneficial, how to enhance their performance and how to avoid the traps associated with excessive adjustments.

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Forecast Pro Tips and Tricks: Flexible Data Hierarchies in Forecast Pro Unlimited V5

Forecast Pro Unlimited V5 allows you to easily define hierarchies through the use of attribute fields. Unlike other desktop forecasting applications, there are no limits on the number of levels or structure of the hierarchy (e.g., customer-based, product grouping-based, geography-based, etc.). Forecasts are generated for all levels of your hierarchy and can be reconciled using any combination of top-down, bottom-up and middle-out approaches. Once you've completed your forecasts, Forecast Pro Unlimited V5 will export your forecasts and defined hierarchy in a tabular format, allowing for easy forecast integration, analysis and reporting.

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