IJF: European Election Forecasting

The International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) is a leading journal in the field of forecasting. It is the official publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and shares its aims and scope. A new issue is out now and holds a special section on European Election Forecasting.

 

 

International Journal of Forecasting

International Journal of Forecasting

Volume 26, Issue 1,  Pages 1-210 (January-March 2010)

Special Section: European Election Forecasting
Edited by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Bruno Jêrôme

 

 

 

1.

Editorial Board
Page v

 

 

2.

Changing of the guard
Page 1
Rob J. Hyndman

 

  Replications and reproducible research

 

3.

Encouraging replication and reproducible research
Pages 2-3
Rob J. Hyndman

 

 

4.

Replications of forecasting research
Pages 4-8
Heiner Evanschitzky, J. Scott Armstrong

 

  European election forecasting

 

5.

European election forecasting: An introduction
Pages 9-10
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Bruno Jêrôme

 

 

6.

Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution
Pages 11-18
Richard Nadeau, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Éric Bélanger

 

 

7.

Bread and butter à la française: Multiparty forecasts of the French legislative vote (1981-2007)
Pages 19-31
Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans

 

 

8.

Testing the accuracy of the Downs' spatial voter model on forecasting the winners of the French parliamentary elections in May-June 2007
Pages 32-41
Bertrand Lemennicier, Honorine Katir-Lescieux

 

 

9.

The chancellor model: Forecasting German elections
Pages 42-53
Helmut Norpoth, Thomas Gschwend

 

 

10.

Election cycles and electoral forecasting in Italy, 1994-2008
Pages 54-67
Paolo Bellucci

 

 

11.

Improving predictive accuracy of exit polls
Pages 68-81
Jose M. Pavia

 

 

12.

Comparing forecast models of Radical Right voting in four European countries (1973-2008)
Pages 82-97
Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi

 

 

13.

Forecasting partisan dynamics in Europe
Pages 98-115
Bruno Jerôme, Véronique Jerôme-Speziari

 

  Regular papers

 

14.

Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences
Pages 116-133
Cuneyt Eroglu, Keely L. Croxton

 

 

15.

Judging the judges through accuracy-implication metrics: The case of inventory forecasting
Pages 134-143
Aris A. Syntetos, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, John E. Boylan

 

 

16.

Forecasting task-technology fit: The influence of individuals, systems and procedures on forecast performance
Pages 144-161
Carlo D. Smith, John T. Mentzer

 

 

17.

Stochastic level shifts and outliers and the dynamics of oil price movements
Pages 162-179
Thomas M. Trimbur

 

 

18.

Estimation of the conditional variance-covariance matrix of returns using the intraday range
Pages 180-194
Richard D.F. Harris, Fatih Yilmaz

 

  Interview

 

19.

Interview with Herman O. Stekler
Pages 195-203
Frederick L. Joutz

 

  Book reviews

 

20.

Rob J. Hyndman, Anne B. Koehler, J. Keith Ord and Ralph Snyder , Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach, Springer (2008) 359 pp, ISBN 978-3-540-71916-0 (paperback), € 36.95, e-ISBN 978-3-540-71918-2 (online), € 25/Chapter.
Pages 204-205
Lars-Erik Öller, Pär Stockhammar

 

 

21.

Book review
Pages 206-207
Brian W. Sloboda

 

 

22.

Book review
Pages 208-209
Robert Fildes

 

 

For more information go to http://forecasters.org/ijf