Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as a commodity to be mined, not a resource that can be grown and improved. That's about to change.
Starting in mid-2011, five teams will compete in a U.S.-government-sponsored forecasting tournament. Each team will develop its own tools for harnessing and improving collective intelligence and will be judged on how well its forecasters predict major trends and events around the world over the next four years.
We can promise you the chance to: (1) learn about yourself (your skill in predicting – and your skill in becoming more accurate over time as you learn from feedback and/or special training exercises); (2) contribute to cutting-edge scientific work on both individual-level factors that promote or inhibit accuracy and group- or team-level factors that contribute to accuracy; and (3) help us distinguish better from worse approaches to generating forecasts of importance to national security, global affairs, and economics.
Requirements for participation include the following: (1) A baccalaureate, bachelors, or undergraduate degree from an accredited college or university (more advanced degrees are welcome); (2) U.S. citizenship and over 18 years of age; (3) A curiosity about how well you make predictions about world events – and an interest in exploring techniques for improvement.
You will be paid a token honorarium of $150 each year (over potentially four years) for your participation if you fulfill the requirements of the project.