Global warming alarm analogies forecasting project page now up

Is it possible to make useful forecasts about social phenomena such as the alarm over predictions of dangerous manmade global warming? Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong reasoned that it should be possible to do so using the structured analogies method. (In their 2007 paper, Green and Armstrong found that structured analogies provided forecasts that were more accurate than experts’ judgments when applied to the difficult problem of forecasting decisions in conflicts.) The Global Warming Analogies Forecasting Project page is now up on the Public Policy Forecasting SIG pages (PublicPolicyForecasting.com (http://publicpolicyforecasting.com)). The page includes a link to the Project working paper and lists 26 situations that have been identified as analogous to the current alarm. To date there are descriptions of six of them available. Kesten and Scott welcome evidence and analysis, especially if it contradicts their own efforts to date.