Forecasting elections from the single most important issue

Andreas Graefe ( and Scott Armstrong ( developed a model for forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections. It provides fast advice on which issues candidates should focus on in their campaign by using information about how voters perceive the … candidates’ ability to handle the single most important issue facing the country. It predicted the winner of the past ten elections with an accuracy of 97% (based on an examination of the forecasts on each of the last 100 days prior to each of the last ten U.S. Presidential elections). A working paper version of the paper, which was accepted for publication in the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, is available here (