Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles

We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast densities from potentially many…

We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast densities from potentially many component models. Each component represents the univariate dynamic process followed by a single disaggregate variable. The ensemble produced from these components approximates the many unknown relationships between the disaggregates and the aggregate by using time-varying weights on the component forecast densities. In our application, we use the disaggregate ensemble approach to forecast US Personal Consumption Expenditure in°ation from 1997Q2 to 2008Q1. Our ensemble combining the evidence from 11 disaggregate series outperforms an aggregate autoregressive benchmark, and an aggregate time-varying parameter specification in density forecasting.

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