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Category: Research
Improve forecast accuracy with signals intelligence
Past research has found that publicly available data can be used to accurately forecast events such as political crises and disease outbreaks.
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Prediction isn’t a hopeless enterprise
It’s possible to get better at forecasting. Research offers some insights into the factors that make a difference to become a “super forecaster”.
Complexity increases forecast error
Complex models are more popular than simple ones among researchers, forecasters, and clients. The popularity of complexity may be due to incentives.
New Forecasting Papers: Forecasting Profitability
In this issue we have: Forecasting Profitability; Monetary policy expectations; Estimation Errors and Prediction Errors; and Prediction of Macroeconomic Performance in Pacific Island Countries.
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Validating Models of Adversary Behaviors
Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent on the United States homeland security since 9/11, and numerous models have been developed to study the strategic interactions between defenders and adversaries, e.g. attackers or terrorists.
Predicting Social Content Performance
Adobe has announced a powerful new predictive publishing capability which predicts social engagement on individual pieces of content and automatically suggests ideal timing to improve how that content will perform.
Research into Supply Chain Forecasting Practice
Our research into best practices in forecasting is well under way, and is already providing some new insights in Supply Chain Forecasting, Demand Planning and Forecasting practices in Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) and Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR).
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Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand
In this issue we haven Exchange Rate Equations Based on Interest Rate Rules, Forecasting Wheat Output and Profits from Cropping Systems Using Simulation Models, Evaluation of Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures, Measuring overfitting and mispecification in nonlinear models, Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand, and more. Continue reading Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand
The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting is published by the International Institute of Forecasters. The Summer 2011 issue features the first of a two-part article The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles.
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