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Applied Forecasting

Forecasting, time series analysis, demand planning, prediction and estimation

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Category: Research

Three ways to give forecasters a boost

Three ways to give forecasters a boost

Need to boost forecast accuracy? Three factors have huge impact on the predictions: training, teams and tracking. It’s time to tee up!

Continue reading Three ways to give forecasters a boost

Posted on 2015-05-192015-05-19Categories News, ResearchTags accuracy, competition, factors, forecasting, improvement

Improve forecast accuracy with signals intelligence

Past research has found that publicly available data can be used to accurately forecast events such as political crises and disease outbreaks.

Continue reading Improve forecast accuracy with signals intelligence

Posted on 2015-02-16Categories News, ResearchTags communication, crisis, events, outbreak, signals

Prediction isn’t a hopeless enterprise

It’s possible to get better at forecasting. Research offers some insights into the factors that make a difference to become a “super forecaster”.

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Posted on 2015-02-032015-02-03Categories News, ResearchTags accuracy, forecasting, prediction, research

Complexity increases forecast error

Complex models are more popular than simple ones among researchers, forecasters, and clients. The popularity of complexity may be due to incentives.

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Posted on 2015-01-302015-01-30Categories News, ResearchTags complex, model, research, simple

New Forecasting Papers: Forecasting Profitability

In this issue we have: Forecasting Profitability; Monetary policy expectations; Estimation Errors and Prediction Errors; and Prediction of Macroeconomic Performance in Pacific Island Countries.

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Posted on 2013-08-202015-01-30Categories News, ResearchTags papers, profitibility, research

Validating Models of Adversary Behaviors

Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent on the United States homeland security since 9/11, and numerous models have been developed to study the strategic interactions between defenders and adversaries, e.g. attackers or terrorists.

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Posted on 2013-05-082015-01-30Categories News, ResearchTags behavioural, models, validation

Predicting Social Content Performance

Adobe has announced a powerful new predictive publishing capability which predicts social engagement on individual pieces of content and automatically suggests ideal timing to improve how that content will perform.

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Posted on 2013-04-252015-01-30Categories News, ResearchTags performance, prediction, social media

Research into Supply Chain Forecasting Practice

Our research into best practices in forecasting is well under way, and is already providing some new insights in Supply Chain Forecasting, Demand Planning and Forecasting practices in Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) and Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR).

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Posted on 2012-02-24Categories Research

Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand

In this issue we haven Exchange Rate Equations Based on Interest Rate Rules, Forecasting Wheat Output and Profits from Cropping Systems Using Simulation Models, Evaluation of Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures, Measuring overfitting and mispecification in nonlinear models, Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand, and more. Continue reading Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand
Posted on 2011-08-22Categories Research

The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting is published by the International Institute of Forecasters. The Summer 2011 issue features the first of a two-part article The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles.

Continue reading The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles

Posted on 2011-08-16Categories Research

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