Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting is published by the International Institute of Forecasters. The Summer 2011 issue features the first of a two-part article The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles.
Author Steve Morlidge offers a set of guiding principles for the design, management, and improvement of an organizational forecasting process. These guiding principles were conceived as a complement to Scott Armstrong’s principles of forecasting, which offer advice and caveats about forecasting methods and measurements.
• Foundation Principles: Those principles that need to be understood and adhered to by all stakeholders if a forecast process is to routinely produce reliable results.
• Design Principles: How to structure the forecast process and allocate roles to enable it to meet its purpose in a robust and effective manner.
• Process Principles: How to help ensure the effective running of a forecast process on a routine basis.
• Behavioural Principles: How to ensure that all those involved in the forecast process behave in a manner that doesn’t compromise the quality of the results.
• Maintenance and Improvement Principles: How to ensure that the reliability of the forecast process does not deteriorate, and to create opportunities to enhance its performance.