Applied Forecasting

In this paper we define a set of indirect estimators based on moment approximations of the auxilary estimators. We provide results that describe higher order asymptotic properties of these estimators. The introduction of these is motivated by reasons of analytical and computational facilitation. ...

Social experiments are powerful sources of information about the effectiveness of interventions. In practice, initial randomization plans are almost always compromised. Multiple hypotheses are frequently tested. "Signicant" effects are often reported with p-values that do not account fo...

Consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters in the standard Tobit model rely heavily on the assumption of a normally distributed error term. The Box Cox transformation presents an obvious attempt to preserve normality when the data make this questionable. This paper sets o...

Several options for estimation and prediction in regressions using nonnegative skewed dependent variables are compared. Often, Poisson regression outperforms competitors, even when its assumptions are violated and the correct model is one that justifies a competitor.

This paper introduces a Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) approach based on the Cen- tral Difference Kalman Filter (CDKF) to estimate non-linear DSGE models with potentially non-Gaussian shocks. We argue that this estimator can be expected to be consistent and asymptotically normal for DSGE models s...

This paper introduces a Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) approach based on the Cen- tral Difference Kalman Filter (CDKF) to estimate non-linear DSGE models with potentially non-Gaussian shocks. We argue that this estimator can be expected to be consistent and asymptotically normal for DSGE models s...

Short-term congestion forecasting is highly important for market participants in wholesale power markets that use Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) to manage congestion. Accurate congestion forecasting facilitates market traders in bidding and trading activities and assists market operators in sy...