How Post Cereal Prepares Accurate Forecasts from Promotional and Marketing ActivitiesNorth Carolina DMV redux?
Did the North Carolina Department of Motor Vehicles regain its sanity? Or was this just another tease? As you recall from last year, my application for “THE BFD” personalized license plate was accepted – then rejected – even though that extra $30 fee could have eased at least some of the...
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Pioneer of modern econometrics diesArnold Zellner, a leading economist at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business who pioneered the field of Bayesian econometrics, died August 11 at his home in the Hyde Park neighborhood of Chicago. He was 83 and suffered a stroke while battling cancer. The Overconfidence Problem in ForecastingIt may be neither troubling nor surprising that C.F.O.'s can't accurately predict the stock market's path. If they could, they'd be running hedge funds and making billions. What is troubling, though, is that as a group, many of these executives apparently don't realize that they lack forecasting ability. Ring, Ring, Has Bayer Reduced Forecast Error by Avoiding the Telephone Game Effect Through Better Communication?OLG fife cycle model transition paths: alternate model forecast method
The overlapping generations (OLG) model is an important framework for analyzing any type of question in which age cohorts are affected differently by exogenous shocks. However, as the dimensions and degree of heterogeneity in these models increase, the computational burden imposed by rational exp...
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FAQ: Retail Store Forecasting
Self-anointed as The Aristocrat of forecasting related blogs, The BFD takes its public service role seriously (or at least as seriously as anyone who self-anoints on a regular basis can be taken). Among the services The BFD provides, both publicly (on webcasts or speaking engagements) and privat...
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