The Lancaster Centre for Forecasting course on Forecasting Fundamentals introduces basic methods, tools and systems needed for statistical forecasting, and lays the foundation for increasing forecasting accuracy and efficiency of work.
The course is aimed at practitioners with some experience in organisational forecasting, and develops the fundamentals of forecasting methods in a maths-lite, hands-on format that does not require any prior statistical knowledge. The Lancaster Centre for Forecasting has been running this and other courses successfully for over 10 years, training over 500 demand planners worldwide.
The compact course consists of 4 days held in two blocks of 2 days each. The first part of the course will be held November 7th & 8th 2011 in Lancaster. The dates of the second part of the course, normally held in February of next year, are agreed with the workshop attendees during the first session.
A combination of lectures and exercises using Microsoft Excel will enable you to understand the functioning (and the limitations) of Simple, Trended, Seasonal and Trend-Seasonal Exponential Smoothing and causal modelling using single and multiple dynamic regression. The course will consist of hands-on-training (using mainly MS Excel) on:
- Fundamentals of forecasting
- Statistical forecasting methods
- Limitations of Naive methods
- The effect of moving & weighted averages
- Selecting and Parameterising Exponential Smoothing methods
- Econometric methods
- Understanding single regression
- Extending information to multiple regression
- Building dynamic regression including dummy variables & seasonality
- Forecast evaluation through unbiased forecast errors
- Role & adequate use of judgement in forecasting
- Examples of Forecasting software etc.
Optional modules are available to supplement the core course, including an optional module of a full day following the core course to analyse your data, build “best practices” models and track possible improvements in forecasting accuracy. All courses and add-on modules are subject to a minimum number of registrations. Discounts for groups of 2 and 3 attendees per company are available.
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