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NPR joins the unforecastability bandwagon
Tuesday, 05 January 2010
Today my colleague Alison Bolen, Editor of sascom magazine, sent me this link to an interesting piece on NPR: "Can...

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SAS recognized as leading R&D center in China
Tuesday, 05 January 2010
SAS Beijing R&D receives China’s Best Software R&D Center Leader Award

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Falling Asleep at Your S&OP Meeting?
Monday, 04 January 2010
I remember the day very clearly when I read Donald J Wheeler’s book “Understanding Variation – The Key to Managing Chaos.” What grabbed my attention was the sterility of the traditional monthly report and, furthermore, the potential for it to be truly misleading. Let’s consider what is...

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Falling Asleep at Your S&OP Meeting?
Monday, 04 January 2010
I remember the day very clearly when I read Donald J Wheeler’s book “Understanding Variation – The Key to Managing Chaos.” What grabbed my attention was the sterility of the traditional monthly report and, furthermore, the potential for it to be...

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Bootstrap prediction mean squared errors of unobserved states based on the Kalman filter with...
Friday, 01 January 2010
Prediction intervals in State Space models can be obtained by assuming Gaussian innovations and using the prediction equations of the Kalman filter, where the true parameters are substituted by consistent estimates. This approach has two limitations....

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How to evaluate an Early Warning System ?
Friday, 01 January 2010
This paper proposes a new statistical framework originating from the traditional credit- scoring literature, to evaluate currency crises Early Warning Systems (EWS). Based on an assessment of the predictive power of panel logit and Markov frameworks, the...

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Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for...
Friday, 01 January 2010
This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the...

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Building Demand Forecasting Models for ATM Machines & the Time Value of Money Risk
Tuesday, 29 December 2009
The “time value of money” is at stake when you are trying to forecast demand at ATM machines and of course, customer satisfaction. Trying to get the right amount of cash for pay day and holidays requires some pretty complicated models to get this right.  The reality is that these methods and...

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Building Demand Forecasting Models for ATM Machines & the Time Value of Money Risk
Tuesday, 29 December 2009
The “time value of money” is at stake when you are trying to forecast demand at ATM machines and of course, customer satisfaction. Trying to get the right amount of cash for pay day and holidays requires some pretty complicated models to get this...

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